The question, if AIDS has not spread in geometrically, then either the
spread is slowing down (among homosexuals), or we are being successful 
in treating AIDS, or the *active* cases of AIDS is changing. 

   As we know, there is currently no cure for AIDS, as so far, the drug 
treatments have done very little to prolong the life of AIDS sufferers.  
Although some people have lived slightly longer than the average time 
of 1-3 years after testing positive for AIDS anti-bodies, as the sheer 
numbers of AIDS infected increase, we can expect to see some temporary 
'successes' from time to time.  However, AIDS is fatal - sooner or later.

   Since it takes one AIDS infected person to infect another person, 
and we can assume that only one person is infected by one other person 
at a time, we would have to know how many person(s) an AIDS carrier 
is capable of infecting (over a specific period of time), or at least 
an average, and how *long* the AIDS carrier is capable of infecting 
others.   Then we would need to know how much "innoculant" is needed 
to infect a person (there are no volunteers, I suspect), and the 
resistance to infection.    The CDC in Atlanta doesn't keep this kind 
of data on-hand, as far as I know, so trying to speculate on why AIDS is 
not spreading geometrically, for the most part is guess work.  

   We do have some hard data than can shed some light on the situation, but it 
leaves a rather complex situation. 

   Heres some interesting information, this is based on data collected from 
Jan.-Dec. each year, so it will NOT be corresponding with the previous figures 
which run from Nov.-Nov. each year.  This year is not complete, so the totals 
will seem small, and the CDC report I will be using is dated November 14, 1988 
- the same one (and it's previous year) that I have used throughout the 
discussion.  


Year     NEW cases - Known deaths = Active Carriers  

1981         290           267           23 
1982       1,052           942          110 
1983       2,893         2,615          278 
1984       5,816         4,857          959 
1985      10,707         8,589        2,118 
1986      17,006        11,566        5,440 
1987      23,666        11,183       12,483 
1988      16,800         3,981       12,819 (this year not complete) 
------------------------------------------- 
totals    78,312        44,071+      34,230   

   It should be noted....the reporting of deaths is incomplete, these are 
KNOWN deaths, so there are probably many more left unreported.    
The active carriers is increasing, so is the death rates.  If everyone 
lived longer than the apparent average of 1 or 2 years, we might see a faster
increase, possibly a four fold increase per year.  But, since the carriers 
die off as fast as they do, we probably won't ever see a doubling or 
tripling every year.  I would imagine the annual increases we see now do 
speak for themselves inlight of the "lag" in the increase of active 
AIDS carriers.    

   What is really the sad news is this: 

   Considering how many Active AIDS Carriers there are, look at how many 
people they have managed to infect, figuring an incubation period of at 
least one year.  If for instance, we assume in 1984 there were somewhere 
in the neighborhood of 900-1200 active AIDS carriers, the results for 
1985 is 10,000 NEW AIDS CASES!  That is a 1:10 ratio, not good at all.  
Last year we have about 1:4.5 ratio, with this year probably coming in 
around 1:2 ratio.    

   Before anyone says, "Ah Hah!  See I told you so!"....  

   Let's remember that hemophiliacs are not spreading AIDS, it is not 
easily spread Heterosexually (due to the different environment, the obvious 
differences between a vagina and a rectum), and babies - but these are 
the recipients of the deadly virus.  It is also these groups that are 
seeing increases.  When we subtract these groups from the 'active carrier'
list, (since they are not spreading AIDS) what appeared to be a slow 
down in the spread of AIDS among homosexuals, shows the growth the previous 
numbers confirm.  That was an increase of 5000 over the previous year for
homosexuals.  Unfortunately, we can only make an educated guess which groups
of individuals are dieing and at what rates.  It could very well be that 
given the homosexual lifestyle, they DO pick up more diseases quicker and 
easier, thereby dying faster.  This would definately effect the rate 
of active AIDS carriers, transmission rates, etc., but we don't have 
any hard data on this from the CDC.    

   The percentage increases can mislead, but when we look at plain numbers,
like NEW cases this year - 265 Hemophiliacs compared to 15,489 Homosexuals 
or 6,576 IV Drug users, well there isn't too much to compare.

Bill Bennett

This article originated on
The Salvation Online Network

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