The Spread of AIDS in the Homosexual community

   The question, if AIDS has not spread in geometrically, then either
the spread is slowing down (among homosexuals), or we are being
successful in treating AIDS, or the *active* cases of AIDS is changing.

   As we know, there is currently no cure for AIDS, as so far, the drug
treatments have done very little to prolong the life of AIDS sufferers.
Although some people have lived slightly longer than the average time
of 1-3 years after testing positive for AIDS anti-bodies, as the sheer
numbers of AIDS infected increase, we can expect to see some temporary
'successes' from time to time. However, AIDS is fatal - sooner or later.

   Since it takes one AIDS infected person to infect another person,
and we can assume that only one person is infected by one other person
at a time, we would have to know how many person(s) an AIDS carrier is
capable of infecting (over a specific period of time), or at least an
average, and how *long* the AIDS carrier is capable of infecting
others. Then we would need to know how much "innoculant" is needed to
infect a person (there are no volunteers, I suspect), and the
resistance to infection. The CDC in Atlanta doesn't keep this kind of
data on-hand, as far as I know, so trying to speculate on why AIDS is
not spreading geometrically, for the most part is guess work.

   We do have some hard data than can shed some light on the situation,
but it leaves a rather complex situation.

   Heres some interesting information, this is based on data collected
from Jan.-Dec. each year, so it will NOT be corresponding with the
previous figures which run from Nov.-Nov. each year. This year is not
complete, so the totals will seem small, and the CDC report I will be
using is dated November 14, 1988 - the same one (and it's previous
year) that I have used throughout the discussion.

   Year NEW cases - Known deaths = Active Carriers

   1981      290        267         23 
   1982    1,052        942        110 
   1983    2,893      2,615        278 
   1984    5,816      4,857        959 
   1985   10,707      8,589      2,118 
   1986   17,006     11,566      5,440 
   1987   23,666     11,183     12,483 
   1988   16,800      3,981     12,819 (this year not complete)

 totals   78,312     44,071+    34,230

   It should be noted....the reporting of deaths is incomplete, these
are KNOWN deaths, so there are probably many more left unreported. The
active carriers is increasing, so is the death rates. If everyone lived
longer than the apparent average of 1 or 2 years, we might see a faster
increase, possibly a four fold increase per year. But, since the
carriers die off as fast as they do, we probably won't ever see a
doubling or tripling every year. I would imagine the annual increases
we see now do speak for themselves inlight of the "lag" in the increase
of active AIDS carriers.

   What is really the sad news is this:

   Considering how many Active AIDS Carriers there are, look at how
many people they have managed to infect, figuring an incubation period
of at least one year. If for instance, we assume in 1984 there were
somewhere in the neighborhood of 900-1200 active AIDS carriers, the
results for 1985 is 10,000 NEW AIDS CASES! That is a 1:10 ratio, not
good at all. Last year we have about 1:4.5 ratio, with this year
probably coming in around 1:2 ratio.

   Before anyone says, "Ah Hah! See I told you so!"....

   Let's remember that hemophiliacs are not spreading AIDS, it is not
easily spread Heterosexually (due to the different environment, the
obvious differences between a vagina and a rectum), and babies - but
these are the recipients of the deadly virus. It is also these groups
that are seeing increases. When we subtract these groups from the
'active carrier' list, (since they are not spreading AIDS) what
appeared to be a slow down in the spread of AIDS among homosexuals,
shows the growth the previous numbers confirm. That was an increase of
5000 over the previous year for homosexuals. Unfortunately, we can only
make an educated guess which groups of individuals are dieing and at
what rates. It could very well be that given the homosexual lifestyle,
they DO pick up more diseases quicker and easier, thereby dying faster.
This would definately effect the rate of active AIDS carriers,
transmission rates, etc., but we don't have any hard data on this from
the CDC.

   The percentage increases can mislead, but when we look at plain
numbers, like NEW cases this year - 265 Hemophiliacs compared to 15,489
Homosexuals or 6,576 IV Drug users, well there isn't too much to
compare.

   Bill Bennett

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